Many take issue with those labeling this a “civil war”. Whatever your take on that argument there is no denying that the violence is significant and growing:
“Syria faces a “full-fledged civil war” if the regime’s “continual ruthless repression” against peaceful demonstrators and civilians isn’t stopped now, the top U.N. human rights official said Friday.
Speaking in Geneva, Switzerland, to a U.N. Rights Council’s special session on Syria, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay noted with concern the reports of “increased armed attacks by the opposition forces, including the so-called Free Syrian Army, against the Syrian military and security apparatus.”
“In light of the manifest failure of the Syrian authorities to protect their citizens, the international community needs to take urgent and effective measures to protect the Syrian people,” Pillay said.”
Foreign military intervention is Syria would have seemed like an absolute impossibility just months ago but this is 2011 and absolutely anything is possible. Actually, it seems downright inevitable at the moment. Assad will not capitulate, there are enough opposition forces to ensure that conflict (defensive or otherwise) will continue indefinitely, and there’s a very broad group of international players that appear to be downright eager to get this party started.
However, as many have said, this is not Libya. A no-fly zone would provide little cover for a massively outmatched Free Syrian Army. And even a well funded and trained Free Syrian Army stands little to no chance against the regular Syrian Army who, despite pressures from defections, will remain a force to be reckoned with. Not much has been said about what intervention would mean in this case.
Of course, there’s always the rapid dominance, shock and awe, approach. That’s big, expensive, and very messy. However, it gets right down to the business of regime change. The U.N. could also call for the creation of safe havens and keep the threat of an outright assault on the regime in reserve. The end result in either case (a much broader and more aggressive conflict) is likely the same – one just gets you there more directly.
In the end, decisions about the timing and level of force will probably be driven less by the horrors perpetrated by the Assad regime (and they are many) and more by the escalating conflict with Iran. Eliminating the Syrian threat is a crucial step in that process and half measures will not deliver much strategic benefit.
Recommended on Twitter: @MalikAlAbdeh – Malik Al-Abdeh is the Chief Editor of the Syrian pro-democracy satellite channel Barada TV.
Follow developments in Syria and the Free Syrian Army with the Blogs of War Syria Monitor at http://syria.blogsofwar.com.